My Theory of why we have a GPX4800 and a GPX5000

[DOC]

Here's a theory of mine and it is not based on some secret knowledge I have, just the way I know Minelab generally does business and how their business model works; as well as what I know about marketing.

At our Minelab Partner's conference we learned that from idea to market can take from 2 to 3 years. I know this to be the case. I once saw a planning chart for Minelab about 10 years ago, and at that time it showed a time line going out either two or three years with projected release dates of detectors I had never heard of. For example let's say the current detector was a Sovereign, well this time line showed the Sovereign XS2APro, and 2 years later the Sovereign GT being scheduled. (I'm not saying that is what it was as I would never disclose that information.) But it makes sense to have a timeline and a business plan. You don't decide to make a new detector, with expanded capabilities, and WHAMO, next week you have it in production.

I am sure at some point in the history of Minelab, while the GP3000 was the hot detector, they were working on the GP3500 because someone said, we should have a button on the handle that would allow a person to easily rebalance the detector, and it could double as a diagnostic port. At the same time a group of Minelab scientists were meeting and saying, you know what would be cool? What about a detector that has an LCD screen with a host of different settings, and better timings. "Yes, but what would we call it?" Oh Call it the GPX4000 for right now and pencil it in on the timeline for a release date somewhere around 18 to 24 months after the GP3500.

I can also speculate that while we are all in the Q & A period of the GPX5000, Minelab engineers already have the GPX5500 on the drawing board. How do I know? Well because with a two to three year wait from idea to market, if they don't already have the GPX5500 on the drawing board it will be three years before we see another new PI machine, and that is not Minelab's modus operandi. Their MO is to bring out a new PI machine every 18 months to 2 years. The timing seems to be dictated by market trends. They may have intended to release the GP3500 two years after the GP3000, but if sales fall off on the GP3000 they may release the GP3500 in 18 months to boost sales.

OK with this being said:

How long ago was the GPX4500 released? Quite a while. As early as January 2009 there were rumblings that a new machine to replace the GPX4500, and it was going to be released soon. This was prior to any of us realizing that we had a real live gold rush in the Sudan that was in it's infancy. So let's assume for arguments sake that the GPX4800 was scheduled for release in June of 2009. BUT WAIT, by MARCH of 2009 the GLUT of orders for GPX4500 were already in full swing, and the demand was unprecedented.

So what is Minelab to do? The planned release of the GPX4800 was June of 2009 (my pure speculation.) But hey when you are surfing the most beautiful waves in the world, are you really going to leave and go to another beach until the surf dies down? Heck no, you ride those waves.

OK so the demand keeps going strong for the GPX4500's and there is no reason to release the GPX4800. But wait, the demand lasts so long that not only does Minelab pass up the release date of the GPX4800, they are now coming up on the release date of the GPX5000. Maybe The GPX4800 was planned for release in June of 2009 for example, and the GPX5000 for December 2010, 18 months later, BUT the GPX4500 demand has dropped off significantly, it is time for a boost in sales. In fact U.S. prospectors are now NOT even considering a GPX4500 because they know it is time for a new machine.

So what should Minelab do? Release the GPX4800, and then in December of 2010 - 3 months later, release the GPX5000? Well that would tick people off. "GEEESH had I known the GPX5000 was coming out in three months I wouldn't have bought the GPX4800."

SO, Minelab decides to release both machines at once; allowing the consumer to make a choice between the two; and also getting Minelab back on their schedule for future releases of detectors yet to come.

OK, that is my theory of why this has gone down the way it did. The GPX4500 had a longer than normal buying cycle at unprecedented levels and I think it threw the entire schedule off.

So your decision on which model to buy should be based on the kind of ground you hunt in, and whether those additional settings on the GPX5000 will help you eliminate challenging conditions. Considering the GPX5000 has a second coil with it, the price difference between the two machines is minor. Also the GPX5000 may have a better resale value when it comes time to buy that new GPX5500.

BCOT!

Doc

[Steve Herschbach]

Doc, that makes more sense than anything else. Though right now it seems to me a guy is either going to buy a 4500 or a 5000. Anyone needing something better than a 4500 is just going to go 5000.

But let's ask. Anyone want a 4800?

Steve Herschbach

[Ridge Runner]

Steve

Why would I want to buy the 4800 being if I had the money for it with a little more I can have the best.This is why I'm wondering what was Minelab was thinking.I think they do just as good to keep the 4500 and drop the 4800 but lower the price of the 4500 some.

Chuck Anders

[Ridge Runner]

Steve

You know I was thinking I've got to have that 5000.The next thing is how I'm going to get the money and then a letter came in the mail.The sky open up and a light shine down on me and in the letter it said you got Jury Duty Sept.27

Well so much for that.The joke is on me.

Chuck Anders

[Guest GoldProspectinginOz]

But let's ask. Anyone want a 4800?

Steve Herschbach

In most cases I think the answer will be a resounding NO!I wonder if we will see a price drop in the 4800 to try and move them? Why ML ever bothered to produce 4800's and their pricing is a mystery to me and i suspect many others!

doug

http://australianelectronicgoldprospectingforum.com/index.php

[frank c]

Doc, thats a great theory from an experienced insider like yourself.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the subject (4800 vrs. 5000) thats definitely a confusing issue to me the fact that they came out with these 2 machines together and that the machines seem to differ very slightly in features and price.

Unfortunately for me their price range is (ASTRONOMICAL) to me in my current position

I am still one of the less fortunate avid enthusiasts after having purchased a 2100v2 with many accessories from you a few years ago then having to let it go because of medical issues I now am standing in the background and have been for awhile waiting and wondering when and if Minelab would design and release another entry or mid level P.I. detector series in the price ranges that the SD 2100 2200 were in. That hasn't happened , instead Whites Electronics has introduced their P.I. in the $1500. range. I know even as bad as the economy is there are many people out there that would get involved with a purchase of entry or mid level priced units as I have referred to had Minelab issued a release of a new model in that old SD price range.

It still looks like for the immediate future most of us wanting a Minelab P.I. that don't have the financial resources will be steered into looking at the used market that arises from the newly released models again .

Which isn't a bad thing entirely except for the fact of NO factory warranty on such an expensive to repair machine and also being it is so seemingly difficult to find qualified techs to do the diagnosis and repairs on them when needed. Without having to pay to ship/insure the unit all the way to the motherland (AUSTRAILLA) and the time involved.

Understand I am not making this post in a derogatory way big business is just that BIG BUSINESS (WORLDWIDE CORP's) It is what it is and they have their way of doing things.

I have gained a respect for the Minelab P.I. gold detectors and have owned 2 of them over the years, I spent alot of my hunting time along side my prospecting buddy and his GP Extreme which he has pretty well mastered the past 8 years so I know what these detectors are capable of producing, I have seen the results first hand.

Maybe its just been WISHFUL THINKING on my part the past couple years that another entry or mid level series will be released. The world has and is drastically changing financially and I guess at almost 60 years old I just don't quite understand why this hasn't happened and why Minelab shut down the 2100 2200 series price range units without replacing/updating them.

I truly believe this leaves MORE potential (REAL) purchasing customers such as myself entirely out of the picture compared to the actual numbers of purchasers of the ("NEW MODELS).

And this MAY be the answer in reality, It just might be that the company serves itself better making LESS units costing MORE and lets the displaced (previous, older) units fill the lower cost market place. Which leaves REPAIRS and availability of parts/components for ALL the units including the SD series as a main concern to second hand buyers.

Minelab if you're out there monitoring these customer sites and I believe you are.......TAKE HEED of what I say THESE SD units are WHAT MADE YOU WHO YOU ARE IN THE GOLD PROSPECTING FIELD.

The question that remains is how will you be handling these older units needing repairs as the numbers will increase.

Time will tell the tale. And I hope its a pleasant one for all concerned.

Appreciate your efforts Doc.

[dutch john]

Well "hear" is my thought... pun intended...

I qualify as leagally deaf... no fun. With hearing aids I hear very little... Now consider this: Over the past 12 years I have bought five small over the ear hearing aids.

Here is what I have spent on them over the twelve years: $650 + $650 + $2400 + $4000 and $2000 each; plus repairs and batteries; not counting the trips to and from their office for adjustments...

Only the $4000 and $2000 units still work... The $4000 unit is now appoaching its lifetime expectancy... The $650 units are considered obsolete as is the $2400 unit. The $2000 unit is only a couple of months old.

So from this viewpoint the most expensive Minelab is a good deal... Even with the $2000 in my left ear and the $4000 in my right ear... I cannot hold a conversation with our youngest great grandson, now two years old and talking a "blue streak."

Hey... I'm not complaining; just explaining... I'm glad that there has been great improvements in hearing aids over the

years... Maybe Minelab ought'a make them too...

Jim Straight

[frank c]

Jim, could you please REPEAT that....??? I could'nt quite hear you as I too am hearing impaired especially in the left ear and don't have a hearing aid to help me.

Just a little "yoke" to go with your pun, hope all is well with you and the family.

[dutch john]

Frank... for the left ear you may need a GPX-5000 type hearing aid... The SD-aids, the GP-aids and the GPX-hearing aids have been improved.

When it comes to being able to hear the soft spoken worde of your family members the best hearing aids become a bargain no matter the cost... For me a GPX-5500 type hearing would be most welcome... But could I afford it? However, if I could and one was available I would buy it in a heartbeat...

[DOC]

Every dealer there was in absolute agreement that Minelab was turning their back on an enormous loyal customer base by not filling the hole where the SD2200dV2 used to be.

There were no firm answers given. The answer by Bill Stirling was well how do we go backwards from the GPX4000?

He was told that no one expects them to go backwards, in fact we just need a simple machine that did what the SD2200d did. We don't need sophisticated timings, fancy LCD screens, we just need a simple easy to use replacement for the SD2200dV2.

I hope Minelab doesn't forget that there were pounds of gold found with the old SD2200, and still pounds of gold being found with old ones that are still being used.

I hope everyone that feels a machine in this league and price range is something Minelab still needs will direct those comments via email to Minelab Corporate.

Doc

[Bunk]

Frank, I have to agree. I know several people that would buy a ML today if they still had a entry level machine.

It took me 15 years to be able to move into a ML and I thought two grand was a lot. With todays prices, I would not able to get into this hobbie with a top of the line ML. Five grand is a lot of dough, I don't care who you are! If it was only a few hundred more to have the best and I could afford it, what would be the point of second best? Time will tell, I will bet a entry level machine makes a come back, more and more people getting interested in prospecting every day.

Bunk