My Educated Opinion on a replacement for the GPX5000

[DOC]

As you know, Rob and I completed 4 days of training to become MINELAB CERTIFIED GOLD MACHINE TRAINERS. We are 2 of only about 20 in the country to have received this CERTIFICATION. Then another 3 days at the dealer conference. 7 days total.

We just recently (10 days ago) got back from the Annual Minelab Dealer Conference. Seems like it takes forever to get back into the swing of things when you have been AWOL for a week.

So here is my personal opinion regarding facts I gleaned from the conference regarding a replacement or upgrade of the GPX5000 machine.

One of the questions posed at the conference was "Will Minelab be releasing a new Pulse Induction Metal Detector that will be an upgrade or take the place of the GPX5000?"

This is usually about the time (2 to 3 years after introduction of a new machine) when people who have not invested in a GPX5000 start thinking, "Well maybe I will hold off because surely Minelab will be coming out with the GPX5500 GPX6000, etc. in the near future."

Minelab's response to this question was pretty emphatic. "The GPX5000 will remain the flagship metal detector of the Minelab Gold Machine line and there are no plans to replace this machine in the foreseeable future."

I think the reason for this is because the GPX5000 is extremely popular and sales remain extremely steady in the United States.

I believe what Minelab is telling us. Since Codan took over Minelab, and management has changed, we have come to depend on what the company tells us. The credibility of what the company tells us is extremely high.

My opinion it will be at the very least a year before we will see anything that would take the place of the GPX5000. Granted that is only my opinion, based on what I have been told by Minelab.

Obviously "Nothing in the foreseeable future" is sort of vague. But in my mind, I'm guesstimating that maybe at next years dealer conference we might get some kind of announcement.

Take care!

Doc

[frank c]

That's NNIICCEE matey, gives me another year to detect some gold an save my money for the 5500.
I always liked the mid series number models 3500 4500 5500 ???

[Hawkeye]

A new model might put the 5000 down into my price range. Until then I'll stick with my 4000.

[nuggethunting]

Hey Doc,

That is a very honest assestment.

What I have always told customers over the years is this. There have been a handful of customers earlier this year that basically said I was full of it and a new detector (like the GPX 5000) would be released before the Winter season started. Well, I guess they were wrong and I was right!

Here is what I can tell you historically speaking -

1. Minelab always seems to test and release a new detector in Australia first
2. That being said, all the rumors will start on the Australian Gold Forums
3. That information will soon leak over to the US forums about a potential release coming
4. This normally happens during Australia's Winter Season, our Summer approx.
5. None of this happened this year, we missed the window meaning no release of a new replacment for the GPX 5000

If you research this, you will find out it's pretty damn accurate. I have given every customer this information before as they were concerned about purchasing a new detector and one being released a month later.

I know I wouldn't want to purchase a detector and find out later a new one came out and I asked the dealer, so I believe in telling the customer what I know.

What I can tell you is some people that didn't believe me are out a GPX and have been for months. Now they are probably thinking, do I jump in now and get one, or wait for how long ........

Just my thoughts,

Rob Allison

[fredm]

_{There are two good reasons to wait for the next model...}

_{1, if you already have any of the Minelab Pi machines and it is working well for you.}

_{2, you don't care about all the gold you could be finding right now with the 5000 or earlier models.}

_{Make no mistake there will be another model by whatever name...5500-plus ctx...miracle from Oz...whatever; it will show up and someone will have just bought a 5000-that is the breaks...they will be upset but as long as the dealer is forthright that should be an accepted risk. Minelab is not going to ruin their sales by prematurely releasing that info...}

_{Minelab is already working on new and better machines. If they aren't then they will end up like some other manufacturers that have had the same machines for years...with no new technology whatever.}

_{all this is just my ever not humble opinion.}

_fred

[DOC]

Fred you are absolutely right. Common sense would say surely they are working on the next replacement to the GPX5000. And any company that is a leader in their industry is probably working with a 10 year plan. They probably know what the next 3 machines are going to be in their ongoing line of Pulse Induction Gold machines. GPX6000, GPX7000, GPX8000 whatever. However, they have to decide where to go with the technology, or if they can go any further. And at what cost, what is that market point where even the recreational prospector says, no way can I afford that, I have to stick with what I have.

I mean we are still talking about PULSE INDUCTION. And from the introduction of the 2000, the SD2100 SD2200 GP Extreme, GP3000 GP 3500, GPX4000, GPX4500, GPX4800 GPX5000. These 10 machines are all Pulse Induction, however, the improvements have been internal. From Dual Voltage Technology, to Multi-Period Sensing, to SETA, all of these things have made vast improvements to the way the PULSE INDUCTION works. And while many prospectors are using these machines and may have heard of Multiperiod Sensing, Dual Voltage, and SETA, probably 90% have no idea what it is that these technologies do and why they are so important to the way Minelab Pulse Induction machines work. And to be realistic, 90% of the people don't care, they just want a machine that finds gold.

So Minelab has to decide do they try to make Pulse Induction work even better with new innovations in the way the machine processes these pulses? Or do they totally change technology, or add technology? Like ground penetrating radar, or microwave infusion and looking at heat signatures of different metals? Or what about something that actually knows the molecular structure of gold and looks for that configuration. Sounds like science fiction doesn't it?

Or do they simply repackage what they have and add some useful things like a Screen and GPS mapping like with the CTX3030? Or rock solid discrimination like you find in coin machines?

I mean where do they really go from here? That may be one of the delays. I'm sure they have things on the imagination drawing board that would boggle the imagination. However, they probably also know the recreational prospector isn't willing to pay $25,000 for a prospecting metal detector.

I once heard a story about Bruce Candy the inventor of the Minelab pulse induction technology and Chief Physicist for Minelab. Whether this story is true or not, I don't know. But it goes to illustrate that there are many technologies that can be put into a metal detector, but at what cost, and what are the trade offs? Apparently this individual was in the parking lot one day when Bruce pulled up. He seemed very excited and said, come here, I have to show you this. Bruce proceeded to take this backpack for of electronics out of his car and proceeded to fit the other Minelab staff member with this bag that weighed about 60 pounds.

He took out a shaft with a coil on it, and plugged it in. Put headphones on his reluctant assistant, and turned the contraption on. He proceeded to make a few adjustments. Then he guided his participant out into a field and told him to swing the coil around a bit. After about 5 minutes Bruce enthusiastically pulled the headphones off the detectorist and said, "What did you hear?" The participant responded short of sheepishly, "Actually I heard absolutely nothing." With glee Bruce exclaimed, "I know! Isn't it amazing!"

Apparently Bruce had developed something that weighed about 60 pounds that was absolutely quiet and would only make a sound when it went over gold. So there you have it, an amazing technology, but at last report it weighed 60 pounds. Maybe when they get it down to 6 pounds it will be one of those detectors that makes it onto the drawing board.

The African and South American markets are growing very fast and Minelab is known as the detector of choice in these gold rich regions. However, they have to consider making the machines sophisticated enough to outperform anything in the market, and yet still simple enough to operate, so that it doesn't take a month of instruction to teach to the average user.

It's an exciting and interesting business and hobby to be sure.

Doc

[Steve Herschbach]

Well Doc, you got one part wrong. There are people who would pay $25,000 for a 60 lb detector that only goes off on gold. Hook me up!

[nuggethunting]

Hey Doc and Steve,

I would agree. I think there are people that would pay up to $25,000 for a detector that would only find gold, but it would be very small. However, regardless of who would buy it, I know I could make it pay for itself quickly. You could cover a vast amount of ground, pluck only gold and leave all the iron rubbish in the ground. You could walk right now some of the richest placer gulches that are littered with iron rubbish and pluck potentially larger piece of gold.

I have a handful of areas I would love to use this detector on.

Can only dream for now of this unit .....

Rob Allison

[DOC]

Well Doc, you got one part wrong. There are people who would pay $25,000 for a 60 lb detector that only goes off on gold. Hook me up!

Steve I forgot, you're not 64 like I am. The price doesn't scare me as much as the weight. :-)

[seeker]

Great conversation topic heck I'm 73, just happen to have a spare 25,000 laying around, egg money ya know, lots of places I'd like to bang arounbd with something like that...Bring it on .............Geo

[Reno Chris]

I can point you to a detector that can tell gold from any other metal or mineral - and the units only weigh 3 or 4 pounds.

.......but the detection window (effective coil size) is only about a half inch and the depth of detection is only about a half inch as well.

Oh, and the price is closer to 50K rather than 25.

And some of the older units required the owner to have a license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.................. (at least they took care of that one).

They are a device much better suited to testing base metal and silver ores than detecting nuggets - but for testing ore samples they are way, way more sensitive than say a VLF test probe.

Its not a technology that could be merged with PI detectors.

[Uncle Ron]

Great conversation topic heck I'm 73, just happen to have a spare 25,000 laying around, egg money ya know, lots of places I'd like to bang arounbd with something like that...Bring it on .............Geo

Hey George... For $25,000 I'll beep in front of you, dig all targets and hand over everything that's gold ... Can't beat a deal like that????? Cheers, Ron

[Reno Chris]

Check out:
http://www.finders.com.au/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7736&sid=214e9569e82e867bbf8c8218b32f88ab

[benz]

http://www.codan.com.au/Portals/0/investorpubs/Chairman%27s%20&%20CEO%27s%20Addresses%202013.pdf

guess ill wait for the new detector.

[nuggethunting]

Hey Guys,

While some will sit out on getting the GPX 5000, the current GPX 5000 customers will be plucking gold from the various goldfields around the World. I'm positive we will not see another "Flagship" GPX detector this year, or even the first part of 2014. My best guess is we might see some type of "Flagship" metal detector next Summer. During this time, I'm going to be hitting it hard with the current, most powerful metal detector on the planet, the Minelab GPX 5000. I will let you know what I find, while you're still debating when you will jump in.

Just a bit of humor and seriousness all in one.

Wishing you all the best. Don't loose too much sleep over it, just get out there and swing what you have!

Rob Allison

[Reno Chris]

Don't loose too much sleep over it, just get out there and swing what you have!

I totally agree. We might have something new in 6 or 8 months, but then again it might be two years or even more. We all were expecting the replacement to the 4500 for a long time before it actually arrived and the 5000 is only a refinement step up from the 4500 - not really new technology. Engineers often underestimate the time it take to fine tune and get a detector in full optimal shape. Especially if we really are looking at some type of "new" technology. I don't have any inside knowledge but I am guessing that Doc is generally correct and those who decide to wait will be waiting a while.

[AUDuke]

I think it may be that the present Performance may come in a smaller and lighter package, maybe one you won't have to wear.